NWS Area Forecast Discussion

Issued by the National Weather Service


Forecast Discussion for TAE NWS Office
000
FXUS62 KTAE 252331
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
731 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...
Showers have dissipated across the Florida Panhandle. Overnight,
patchy MVFR conditions are possible at VLD from 08z-13z. However,
all other sites will be VFR through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [301 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Weak surface ridging to our north and a weak upper level low aloft
of the southeast will make for a fairly quiet afternoon and evening.
Scattered storms offshore will dissipate this evening and any
convection over land will be isolated. Overnight, temperatures will
dip into the mid 60s to around 70.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

An upper level low over the eastern Gulf Tuesday will meander
through the short term. Northerly winds will bring drier air into
the CWA, particularly on Wednesday, with PW values expected to
drop to around 1.2-1.3 inches. Overall convective activity should
be limited during this time period and forecast PoPs are around 10
percent or less. Highs will be in the low 90s, with lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, both above normal for this time of year.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

Thursday will remain dry, but the pattern will change as the
upper low finally pushes off to the east as an upper trough
swings across the eastern CONUS. A weak front will push into the
CWA over the weekend but PoPs with the front will be limited with
only 20-30 PoPs in the forecast for the weekend into early next
week. Highs in the low 90s will be limited to the lower 80s by
Sunday and Monday. Lows in the lower 70s will fall into the 60s
for Sunday and Monday morning.


.MARINE...

Winds will remain below small craft advisory with seas of 2 feet
or less through the remainder of the week. Winds and seas will
increase for Sunday and Monday. Convection will be limited Tuesday
through Thursday.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions are expected for the next few days. However, relative
humidity values will remain above critical levels.


.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall amounts will be limited over the next week and thus
flooding is not expected.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  91  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   73  86  72  88  73 /  10  10   0   0   0
Dothan        67  90  68  92  69 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        67  90  69  92  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      67  89  68  91  69 /   0   0   0  10   0
Cross City    69  90  69  92  70 /   0  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  72  87  72  89  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Fieux

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion