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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221728
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 22 Oct 2018 20:44:10 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221735
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 22 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Vicente, located a few hundred miles southeast of Manzanillo,
Mexico, and on Hurricane Willa, located a couple of hundred miles
southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico.

Showers and thunderstorms have decreased today in association with a
small area of low pressure, located a little over 800 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally
conducive for some gradual development of this system during the
next couple of days, but upper-level winds are expected to
become unfavorable for development by later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto

Summary for Tropical Storm Vicente (EP3/EP232018)

...VICENTE BARELY A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON...
 As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 22
 the center of Vicente was located near 15.4, -101.5
 with movement WNW at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Vicente Public Advisory Number 14

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 222032
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vicente Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...VICENTE BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 101.5W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico
should monitor the progress of Vicente.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicente was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 101.5 West. Vicente is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a turn
to the northwest is expected later today followed by a turn to the
north-northwest on Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Vicente is expected to be near the southwestern coast of Mexico
on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Continued weakening is expected, and Vicente is
forecast to dissipate within the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through Wednesday
over portions of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico.
This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and
landslides within mountainous terrain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 14

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 22 2018  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 222032
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP232018
2100 UTC MON OCT 22 2018

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.5W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  20SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  35SE  45SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.5W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 101.1W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.8N 102.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.0N 104.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 101.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 14

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 222033
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Satellite imagery indicates that Vicente continues to lose
organization.  Deep convection has been sporadic and is generally
limited to the east and south of the storm's center.  Unfortunately,
the most recent ASCAT pass missed the center of the system, so we
are unable to verify if Vicente's circulation is still closed.  Due
to Vicente's deteriorating satellite presentation, the initial
intensity has been lowered to 35 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak
Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  This intensity
estimate may be generous, however.

Although sea-surface temperatures near Vicente are quite warm (29
degrees C), the storm continues to be negatively affected by
northeasterly vertical wind shear.  Moreover, the cyclone's small
size has likely made it more susceptible to shear.  Although the
shear is forecast to weaken slightly over the the next day or so,
the influence of the large circulation of Hurricane Willa and the
interaction with land is likely to cause the storm to dissipate in
24-36 hours, or less. The majority of the dynamical guidance models
dissipate Vicente by tomorrow afternoon and the official forecast
calls for dissipation by 36 h.  It should be noted that, given the
current tenuous state of Vicente, the system could dissipate at any
time.

Vicente's current motion is west-northwestward, or 300/10 kt.  The
system is forecast to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest
while moving between the mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico
and the southeastern portion of the circulation of Willa.  The
official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one
and roughly in the middle of the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 15.4N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 16.8N 102.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 19.0N 104.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 22 2018                                              

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 222032
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  14          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP232018               
2100 UTC MON OCT 22 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH

Tropical Storm Vicente Graphics

Tropical Storm Vicente 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Oct 2018 20:33:31 GMT

Tropical Storm Vicente 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Oct 2018 20:33:31 GMT

Summary for Hurricane Willa (EP4/EP242018)

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILLA CONTINUES NORTHWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 As of 3:00 PM MDT Mon Oct 22
 the center of Willa was located near 19.7, -107.2
 with movement N at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 929 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.

Hurricane Willa Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018  

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 222037
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Willa Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

...EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILLA CONTINUES NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 107.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Playa Perula to San Blas
* North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and
southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 107.2 West.  Willa is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
should continue tonight.  Willa is forecast to accelerate toward the
north-northeast and move over or very near the Islas Marias early
Tuesday and make landfall along the west-central coast of mainland
Mexico in the hurricane warning area Tuesday afternoon or evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Willa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the
next day or so, but Willa is expected to be a dangerous major
hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico.  Rapid weakening is
expected after landfall Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 929 mb (27.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along
portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, especially near
and to the south of where the center of Willa makes landfall.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches,
across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, and southern
Sinaloa in Mexico.  This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash
flooding and landslides.

Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to
4 inches across portions of Zacateca, Durango, southeast Chihuahua,
and Coahuila in Mexico, with local amounts to 6 inches possible.
This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area beginning Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions expected by early Tuesday.  Tropical storm conditions
are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by tonight
and Tuesday.

SURF:  Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect
portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico
during the next few days.  Swells should begin to affect portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula later today.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Willa Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 22 2018  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 222037
TCMEP4

HURRICANE WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018
2100 UTC MON OCT 22 2018

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN... INCLUDING LAS ISLAS MARIAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PLAYA PERULA TO SAN BLAS
* NORTH OF MAZATLAN TO BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILLA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 107.2W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  929 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 107.2W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 107.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.7N 107.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 23.9N 104.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.2N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 107.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Willa Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018  

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 222039
TCDEP4

Hurricane Willa Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018
300 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Willa continues to exhibit an impressive presentation in satellite
imagery, however the small eye has become cloud filled this
afternoon and and earlier microwave data indicated that an
eyewall replacement cycle had begun.  Subjective and objective
data T-numbers are a little lower than this morning, and the
initial intensity has been set at 135 kt for this advisory.  The
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that was en route to
Willa around midday was struck by lightning in one of the outer rain
bands and had to return to base due to safety issues regarding
some of the onboard equipment.

The hurricane has been moving due northward today at about 7 kt.
The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous
advisory as Willa is currently moving around the western portion of
a deep-layer ridge.  An approaching shortwave trough should turn
Willa north-northeastward, then northward toward the west-central
coast of Mexico on Tuesday, and the hurricane is forecast to make
landfall within the hurricane warning area between San Blas and
Mazatlan Tuesday afternoon or evening.  There are still some model
differences regarding the timing of landfall, and the NHC track
forecast is near the various consensus aids to account for these
variations in forward speed.

The rapid intensification phase that Willa has gone through since
its formation on Saturday appears to have ended now that an eyewall
replacement has begun.  Although the hurricane is forecast to remain
in a low to moderate wind shear environment and over warm SSTs
through tonight, some weakening is likely due to internal dynamics
of the eyewall replacement.  Increasing southwesterly shear on
Tuesday is likely to cause some additional weakening, and the NHC
intensity forecast has been adjusted accordingly, however, Willa is
forecast to remain a dangerous major hurricane through landfall.
Rapid weakening will occur Tuesday night as Willa moves over the
mountainous terrain of Mexico, and the cyclone is expected to
dissipate on Wednesday.  Moisture from the remnants of Willa are
forecast to spread northeastward over northern Mexico and
portions of Texas where a swath of heavy rainfall is expected
midweek.

Key Messages:

1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected Tuesday along the
coasts of the Isla Marias, and west-central and southwestern
Mexico near the path of Willa.  Residents should rush preparations
to completion to protect life and property and follow any advice
given by local officials.

2. Everyone in Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning area
along the coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-
threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of
Willa.  Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the
mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 19.7N 107.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 20.7N 107.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 23.9N 104.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 48H  24/1800Z 26.2N 101.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Willa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 22 2018                                              

000
FOPZ14 KNHC 222038
PWSEP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE WILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP242018               
2100 UTC MON OCT 22 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  2   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CULIACAN       34  X   2( 2)  10(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34 95   5(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
ISLAS MARIAS   50 26  69(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
ISLAS MARIAS   64  3  74(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 
MAZATLAN       34  2  51(53)  40(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)   X(93)
MAZATLAN       50  X   6( 6)  45(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
MAZATLAN       64  X   2( 2)  17(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
SAN BLAS       34  8  59(67)   9(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
SAN BLAS       50  X   9( 9)   7(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
SAN BLAS       64  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
P VALLARTA     34 15  14(29)   4(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  2   1( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MANZANILLO     34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
20N 110W       34  2   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

Hurricane Willa Graphics

Hurricane Willa 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 22 Oct 2018 20:38:53 GMT

Hurricane Willa 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 22 Oct 2018 20:38:53 GMT